The Syrian regime of President Bashar al-Assad is confronting an existential crisis as anti-government rebels launch a major offensive in the country’s north, targeting Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city. This development places Russian President Vladimir Putin in a strategic dilemma, forcing him to choose between reinforcing Syria or sustaining his war effort in Ukraine.
Renewed Violence in Syria
The current escalation marks the most significant rebel advance since the 2020 ceasefire brokered by Russia and Turkey. Armed opposition factions have capitalised on the diminishing presence of Iran-backed militias in Syria, weakened by Israel’s intensified campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Over the past few days, rebels have seized dozens of villages and military positions around Aleppo, forcing Assad’s beleaguered forces into retreat.
The Syrian military, already stretched thin from years of conflict and economic sanctions, has struggled to repel the offensive. Rebel forces, equipped with advanced weaponry and reportedly backed by Turkish logistical support, have made rapid gains. This has raised fears of a collapse of government control over northern Syria, including Aleppo.
Russia’s Military Predicament
Putin’s strategic quandary stems from the significant redeployment of Russian forces from Syria to Ukraine. These withdrawals, aimed at bolstering Moscow’s war effort, have left Assad reliant on a reduced contingent of Russian troops and Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) units. Meanwhile, Hezbollah, a key ally of Assad, has redirected its focus towards combating Israel in southern Lebanon.
In response to the rebel offensive, Assad has reportedly flown to Moscow to request urgent reinforcements from Russia. Sources suggest he is seeking additional troops, air support, and military equipment to stabilise the situation in Aleppo and prevent further territorial losses.
However, Russia’s capacity to intervene is limited. The Kremlin faces its own challenges on the Ukrainian front, where it is struggling with manpower shortages and supply chain disruptions caused by intensified Ukrainian counteroffensives. Diverting resources to Syria risks undermining Russia’s positions in Ukraine, a conflict Putin considers pivotal to his domestic and geopolitical strategy.
Geopolitical Undercurrents
The timing of the Syrian escalation is unlikely to be coincidental. Analysts point to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s dissatisfaction with Moscow’s recent dismissal of his proposal for a ceasefire in Ukraine. Erdoğan’s government has supported Syrian rebel groups in the past and maintains a military presence in northern Syria, controlling key rebel strongholds in Idlib.
This geopolitical dynamic underscores Turkey’s potential role in facilitating the rebel offensive. By allowing or encouraging the operation, Ankara may be pressuring Moscow to reconsider its stance on Ukraine, particularly as the international community, including the United States under President-elect Donald Trump, seeks to end the conflict in Eastern Europe.
Consequences for Assad and Putin
Should Aleppo fall to the rebels, the consequences for Assad’s regime could be catastrophic. The city serves as a strategic hub and a symbol of government control in northern Syria. Its loss would not only weaken Assad’s territorial hold but also signal a shift in the balance of power in the region.
For Putin, the situation in Syria represents a critical test of his ability to sustain multiple foreign policy objectives simultaneously. Losing Syria as a strategic foothold in the Middle East would undermine Russia’s influence in the region, including its access to the Mediterranean via Tartus. Yet, diverting resources from Ukraine could jeopardise Russia’s broader ambitions in Europe.
Regional Implications
The resurgence of violence in Syria highlights the fragility of the 2020 ceasefire and the enduring volatility of the Middle East. It also underscores the broader realignments taking place, as Iran’s proxies face increasing challenges and Turkey manoeuvres to expand its influence.
The developments in Syria and Ukraine may force Putin into a reluctant compromise, potentially paving the way for renewed international efforts to mediate both conflicts. However, with so much at stake, any resolution is likely to be fraught with complexity and resistance from the parties involved.
Read also:
Putin Utilises CSTO Summit to Escalate Threats Against Ukraine and the West
