Analysts report that Russia is rapidly depleting its stockpiles of Soviet-era weapons. Despite efforts to refurbish and utilise these outdated armaments, up to 70% of the tanks remain non-operational, while others have merely been cleaned and presented as new.
Furthermore, Russian forces are removing artillery barrels from old equipment and installing them on self-propelled howitzers. If this continues, Russia could reach a “critical point of exhaustion” by 2025, according to The Economist.
The widely publicised Russian offensive on Kharkiv in the north, which began in May, is faltering. Its progress in other areas along the front line, particularly in Donbas, has achieved little strategic significance and has come at a great cost.
The question now is not whether Ukraine can continue to fight, but how long Russia can sustain its current pace of operations. Russia’s manpower appears sufficient, with an estimated 25,000 new soldiers recruited each month, maintaining frontline forces at around 470,000. Additionally, missile production for strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure is rapidly increasing.
Despite Russia’s claims of transforming into a war economy, spending around 8% of its GDP on military expenses, it can only replace its massive losses of tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and artillery by tapping into and refurbishing Soviet-era stockpiles. These reserves, though substantial, are not limitless.
Heavy Losses and Dependence on Obsolete Armour
Intelligence estimates indicate that Russia has lost approximately 3,000 tanks and 5,000 other armoured vehicles in the first two years of the war. The Dutch open-source intelligence site Oryx has documented 3,235 tank losses with photographic or video evidence, suggesting the actual numbers could be significantly higher.
Alexander Goltz, an analyst at the Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies, notes that Russian President Vladimir Putin owes a debt to the Soviet Union for the vast weapon reserves accumulated during the Cold War.
When former Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu boasted in December 2023 about deploying 1,530 tanks in a year, he omitted that nearly 85% were old models (primarily T-72s, but also T-62s and some T-55s) that had been taken out of storage and cleaned.
Since the invasion began, approximately 175 relatively modern T-90M tanks have been deployed. The IISS estimates that this year’s production could approach 90 tanks. However, CSIS analyst Michael Gjerstad argues that most T-90Ms are actually upgraded T-90As.
Challenges in Artillery Production
Another significant issue for Russia is the production of artillery barrels. With North Korean assistance, Russia currently possesses about 3 million shells. However, the high intensity of fire leads to rapid wear and tear on barrels, necessitating replacements within months in some hotspots. Russia has resorted to removing barrels from old towed artillery and fitting them onto self-propelled howitzers. Analysts estimate around 4,800 barrels were replaced by early 2024. The longevity of this solution depends on the condition of approximately 7,000 remaining barrels.
Critical Situation with Tanks and Infantry Fighting Vehicles
The most pressing problem lies with tanks and infantry fighting vehicles. As of February this year, CIMIS estimated that Russia had about 3,200 tanks in storage. Analysts caution that up to 70% of these have not moved since the war began. Many T-72s have been stored in the open since the early 1990s, likely leaving them in poor condition.
At the current rate of attrition, Russian tanks and infantry vehicles in storage will reach a “critical point of exhaustion” by the second half of 2025. If the situation remains unchanged, Russian forces may be forced to adopt a more defensive posture by the end of this year, a shift that could become evident as early as late summer. This might increase President Putin’s interest in negotiating a temporary ceasefire.
In conclusion, while Russia continues to find manpower and increase missile production, its reliance on ageing Soviet-era equipment poses a significant risk to sustaining its military operations. The dwindling stockpiles and ongoing challenges in refurbishing and maintaining these armaments could lead to a strategic shift in the conflict by 2025.
Read also:
Institute for the Study of War Reveals Russia Running Low on Replacement Tanks & AFVs
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