The Syrian conflict, long characterised by its complexity and external interventions, has witnessed a significant development with the retreat of Bashar al-Assad’s forces from key strategic cities. In quick succession, government forces withdrew from Aleppo and then Hama, the latter carrying a deep symbolic resonance for many Syrians.
Hama’s Historical Significance
Hama holds a prominent place in Syria’s history of resistance against the Assad dynasty. The city is a stark reminder of the brutal suppression by Hafez al-Assad, Bashar’s father, during the 1982 uprising. Estimates suggest that between 15,000 and 25,000 residents were killed in what remains one of the regime’s bloodiest episodes.
For many Syrians, the departure of Assad’s forces from Hama signals the closing of a 40-year wound. Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, leader of the opposition forces, referred to this moment as an opportunity to heal the scars inflicted by decades of authoritarian rule.
Opposition Gains and Strategic Implications
The fall of Hama was more than a symbolic victory. Opposition forces also seized a military airbase near the city, capturing vital equipment and weakening the Syrian army’s operational capacity. This development opens new strategic possibilities, with Homs identified as the next target. Control of Homs could pave the way for a push towards Damascus, potentially accelerating the collapse of Assad’s regime.
The swift advances raise questions about the regime’s stability, which once appeared firmly entrenched. The apparent helplessness of Assad’s forces to counter the opposition’s progress underscores the regime’s reliance on external support, particularly from Russia, Iran, and their proxies.
External Players and Shifting Alliances
The Assad regime has long depended on the military and financial backing of Russia and Iran. However, both allies face their own challenges. Moscow remains deeply engaged in its war with Ukraine, limiting its ability to provide significant reinforcements to Assad. Similarly, Tehran, grappling with its own tensions with Israel, has seen its proxy force, Hezbollah, severely weakened by Israeli strikes. These developments leave Assad increasingly vulnerable.
The Syrian opposition, on the other hand, has capitalised on this vulnerability. Armed with advanced weaponry, potentially supplied by Western allies, they pose a credible threat not only to the Assad regime but also to its foreign backers’ assets, including Russia’s airbase in Latakia.
Regional and Global Ramifications
The potential fall of Assad’s regime presents a host of uncertainties for Syria and the wider Middle East. The prospect of a power vacuum raises concerns about who might take control. While the opposition’s current leadership appears focused on ousting Assad, questions linger over their ability to establish a stable and moderate government.
The risk of a radical Islamist faction rising to power cannot be ignored, particularly given the advanced weaponry that Assad’s forces have received from Moscow and Tehran. Such an outcome could further destabilise the region and strain relations with Western powers.
Arab capitals are already engaged in discussions about the implications of Assad’s possible downfall. Regional players are keen to avoid a repeat of the chaos seen in other post-revolutionary states. For Russia and Iran, maintaining some semblance of influence in Syria is vital. Both countries are reportedly considering deploying additional forces to protect their interests, though such moves carry significant risks.
Assad’s Dwindling Options
For Bashar al-Assad, the writing appears to be on the wall. Reports suggest he may already be contemplating political exile, potentially in Russia, where his family has close ties. His recent visits to Moscow are seen by some analysts as attempts to negotiate safe passage should his regime fall. Assad is acutely aware of the fate that befell other Arab leaders who clung to power during uprisings, such as Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi.
