A suspected test of a Russian intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) from the Yasny launch area in Orenburg region on 28 November ended in a mid-air failure, with the rocket breaking up and exploding a short distance from the silo.
Multiple videos posted by local residents show a launch plume rising from a silo position, a flash, and then a large dark cloud with a distinct purple tint drifting over the nearby town.
The incident occurred near Yasny, home to the Dombarovsky Strategic Missile Forces base, part of Russia’s 13th Missile Division. The area has long been associated with silo-based heavy missiles: it previously hosted R-36M2 (SS-18 “Satan”) systems and has also been used as a conversion site for space launchers and, more recently, for deployment of newer strategic systems including the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle.
In the latest footage, the missile appears to rise only a few hundred metres before its trajectory destabilises. Separate clips show at least one large fragment – possibly a second or third stage – tumbling back to earth, followed by a bright fireball and a mushroom-like column of smoke at the impact point. Analysts note that the dark, purple-tinged plume is characteristic of hypergolic propellants such as unsymmetrical dimethylhydrazine (UDMH or “heptyl”) and nitrogen tetroxide, fuels used in Soviet-designed heavy ICBMs and associated launch vehicles. These substances are highly toxic.
Regional officials acknowledged an explosion and visible smoke, but stated that there was “no threat” to the local population and that no evacuation was planned, directing further queries to the military.
Moscow has not confirmed what type of missile was being tested. However, Ukrainian defence analysts and several specialist outlets argue that the characteristics of the plume, together with the location of the silo, point to another test of the RS-28 Sarmat heavy ICBM, which is intended to replace the ageing R-36M2 at sites such as Yasny. They note that several silos in the area have reportedly been re-equipped for Sarmat over recent years.
The same sources link the Orenburg event with a pattern of problems in the Sarmat programme. Commercial satellite imagery from September 2024 showed extensive blast damage and a large crater at a silo at Plesetsk Cosmodrome, attributed by independent researchers and media to a catastrophic Sarmat test failure. That incident followed the only publicly acknowledged successful flight of Sarmat in April 2022; since then, open-source studies have identified at least two failed tests and several cancellations.
Russian expert commentary suggests that the missile in Orenburg detonated during the boost phase, probably destroying or severely damaging the silo from which it was launched. The analyst notes that this would not be the first time a Sarmat test has rendered its launch facility unusable and argues that, despite official statements about imminent deployment, the system still cannot be considered a reliable operational replacement for the R-36M2. This interpretation cannot be independently verified, but it aligns with the visible extent of the failure and the absence of any official announcement.
The strategic context is significant. The R-36M2, capable of carrying up to ten independently targetable warheads, has for decades formed a core part of Russia’s land-based strategic forces. Open-source estimates suggest that roughly three to four dozen such missiles remain in service at Yasny and at Uzhur in Krasnoyarsk Krai, accounting for around one fifth of Russia’s deployed strategic warheads under New START counting rules. These missiles are well beyond their original service life and have already undergone multiple extensions.
If Sarmat cannot be fielded in sufficient numbers on schedule, Russia will have to retire the remaining R-36M2s with only a partial heavy-missile replacement, reducing the total number of silo-based warheads regardless of formal treaty limits. Russian commentators link this prospect to the Kremlin’s recent statements on arms control: Russia suspended its participation in the New START treaty in February 2023, but President Vladimir Putin has since offered to continue observing the treaty’s central limits for a further year after its scheduled expiry in February 2026, provided the United States does the same.
The United States, by contrast, is in the early stages of replacing its Minuteman III ICBMs with the new LGM-35 Sentinel system. Sentinel is planned to begin entering service from the late 2020s, although cost overruns and programme delays have raised the possibility that Minuteman III may need to remain in service into the 2040s. Even so, US industry retains the capacity to expand strategic delivery systems and warhead numbers if policy decisions and budgets allow.
The failed launch at Yasny therefore has implications beyond the immediate technical investigation. It highlights the extent to which Russia’s most ambitious strategic modernisation project remains dependent on an industrial base struggling to deliver complex liquid-fuelled systems, and it illustrates how little secrecy is now possible around such tests. Smartphone footage from local residents, combined with commercial satellite imagery and specialist analysis, has turned what would once have been a closed incident into a matter of public record.
For people living in and around Yasny, the priority will be clarity over environmental and health risks from any release of toxic propellants. For defence planners in NATO and elsewhere, the incident will feed into a broader reassessment of Russia’s future strategic posture: not the headline claims attached to new systems, but the demonstrated reliability and scale of the forces that can actually be deployed.
First published on defencematters.eu
Explosive Setback: Failure of Sarmat ICBM Test and Its Ramifications for Russian Defence
