Recent reports from various international defence analysts indicate that Russia’s next-generation intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the Sarmat, exploded during a test launch at the Plesetsk Cosmodrome.
This mishap not only destroyed the missile itself but also severely damaged the country’s sole launch facility capable of testing new-generation ICBMs. The damaged structures include silo number 136/1 and launch installation number 61.
2 of (6) silos at Uzhur which were prepared for RS-28 #ICBM expected the first missiles at the end of 2024.
In therory they could be used for msl tests too.
The destruction of LC-163/1 is a real mess for Russia.
They missed to rebuild old SS-18 test silos at Baikonur as back up pic.twitter.com/alqOgnqwrQ— ben-reuter (@benreuter_IMINT) September 22, 2024
The incident is seen as a significant setback for Russia’s strategic missile programme, as analysts suggest it could take years to repair the facility.
Norwegian defence expert Thor Arne Iversen noted that rebuilding the testing infrastructure at c could require a lengthy period, possibly extending over several years. Iversen highlighted that the extent of the damage suggests that Russia might not have any immediate alternatives for testing their new missile systems.
Meanwhile, German analyst Ben Reuter pointed out that while Russia could theoretically retrofit the Baikonur Cosmodrome for missile tests, that facility has been under civilian control for the last 15 years, leaving it unsuitable for military use. Additionally, there is no known alternative testing ground available for Russia’s latest nuclear ballistic missile development.
Satellite imagery played a crucial role in identifying the scope of the explosion. Detailed satellite images revealed that the explosion left a crater approximately 62 metres wide. Researcher George Barus suggested that the explosion likely occurred shortly after ignition or during launch, based on the nature of the damage.
A large crater (approximately 62 meters wide) is visible at the launch silo and extensive damage in and around the launch pad can be seen which suggests that the missile exploded shortly after ignition or launch. pic.twitter.com/2a4l7YWf3m
— George Barros (@georgewbarros) September 22, 2024
French military expert Étienne Marcus confirmed that the explosion took place at the same silo used for the only successful Sarmat test launch in April 2022. Marcus also uncovered that Russia had withdrawn its notification of an upcoming test in the area on 19th September, casting doubts on the exact timing of the explosion.
Et pour ceux qui douteraient que ce soit bien le silo d'essais SARMAT 👇 pic.twitter.com/QEmmG5OyMc
— Etienne Marcuz (@M51_4ever) September 22, 2024
Uncertainties Around the Incident
While many believe the explosion occurred on the night of 21st September, Marcus proposed an alternate theory, suggesting the mishap could have happened days earlier. He pointed out that the Sarmat system uses liquid-fuelled rockets, which are only fuelled shortly before launch due to the volatile nature of the fuel. The short window for fuelling and launching highlights a critical flaw in Russia’s ICBM readiness, contrasting sharply with the United States, where solid-fuelled missiles can be launched at any moment without delay.
This discrepancy has strategic implications. Russia’s silo-based ICBMs, which need to be fuelled hours before launch, are less responsive in a real-time nuclear exchange scenario. This technical limitation casts doubt on the concept of nuclear parity between Russia and the US, especially considering that all US missiles, whether silo-based or submarine-launched, are solid-fuelled and ready for instant deployment.
Satellite Surveillance Capabilities
The incident underscores another crucial concern for Moscow: the growing sophistication of Western satellite capabilities. The high-resolution imagery of the explosion site provided by Western satellites allowed researchers to pinpoint details such as the uneven distribution of debris caused by the blast. This level of detail was unprecedented, according to several experts, and raised alarms within Russian military circles. Western satellites can now provide not only real-time imagery but also incredibly detailed data on even the most remote military installations.
George Barros noted that Western satellite reconnaissance has also revealed the destruction of key Russian ammunition depots in Ukraine over the past few months. These images captured the aftermath of Ukrainian strikes on Russian arsenals, demonstrating the immense scale of damage, including the complete annihilation of storage buildings and transport infrastructure. In some cases, the destruction was so extensive that experts estimated it would take months, if not years, to clear the debris and potentially re-establish the depots.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in Washington commented on the recent satellite images, noting that they depict the large-scale devastation caused by Ukrainian attacks on Russian ammunition stores. The institute pointed out that the sheer volume of destroyed materials, from railcars to missile containers, highlighted Russia’s lack of operational security in its supply chains. This lack of preparedness allows for significant vulnerabilities in Russia’s rear logistics hubs.
In conclusion, the recent explosion of the Sarmat missile at Plesetsk has cast serious doubts on Russia’s nuclear capabilities and its ability to compete with the advanced military technology of the West. The extensive damage to critical infrastructure, combined with the vulnerability exposed by Western satellite imagery, presents a significant obstacle for Russia’s strategic deterrent efforts. This failure could delay Russia’s missile programmes further, leaving it dependent on aging Soviet-era missiles for its nuclear arsenal.
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