The European Union and the Group of Seven (G7) are exploring a move from the existing price cap on Russian oil exports to a full ban on maritime services for Russian crude and products, according to officials and diplomats involved in the talks.
The step would be the most far-reaching attempt yet by Western governments to restrict Moscow’s oil revenues linked to seaborne exports.
Under the emerging proposal, Western shipowners, insurers and other service providers would be barred from handling any Russian oil cargoes, irrespective of the price. Russia still exports more than a third of its seaborne oil using tankers and services linked to G7 and EU countries, much of it destined for refiners in India and China and often carried on fleets connected to major EU maritime hubs such as Greece, Cyprus and Malta.
The idea is being developed in technical discussions among G7 officials, with British and American representatives advocating a shift away from the price-cap regime introduced in 2022. Any final United States position will depend on the strategy chosen by President Donald Trump’s administration as it weighs additional pressure on Moscow against the peace talks it is brokering between Kyiv and Moscow. In Brussels, the measure is being considered for inclusion in the EU’s next Russia sanctions package, envisaged for early 2026, with governments seeking to align any move with a wider G7 decision.
The price cap was introduced after the EU and G7 halted almost all imports of Russian crude and refined products. It allows third countries to use Western shipping and insurance only if Russian oil is sold below a set ceiling. In practice, Russia has redirected much of its crude to Asian buyers, increasingly relying on its own tankers and a so-called “shadow fleet” that operates outside Western regulatory oversight and without standard Western insurance cover.
Recent analysis by the Helsinki-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) indicates that in October 2025 around 44% of Russian seaborne oil exports were carried on sanctioned shadow-fleet tankers, 18% on non-sanctioned shadow vessels, and 38% on tankers linked to G7, EU and allied countries. Industry data suggest that the wider fleet moving sanctioned oil from Russia, Iran and Venezuela now numbers about 1,423 tankers, of which roughly 900 are already subject to US, UK or EU sanctions.
Supporters of a full maritime services ban argue that closing remaining access to Western shipping and insurance would directly target the share of Russian exports that still depends on EU- and G7-linked maritime clusters. They contend that the price cap has been weakened by complex enforcement requirements and widespread circumvention, including deliberate mispricing and opaque intermediaries, which have limited its effect on Russia’s oil income.
Shipping and insurance groups caution that a sweeping ban could accelerate the growth of the shadow fleet, drawing more ageing, lightly regulated vessels into long-haul trades and increasing safety and environmental risks. Investigations this year have highlighted incidents involving suspected shadow-fleet tankers in European waters, as well as the use of false flags and complex ownership chains that make it difficult to assign responsibility in the event of an accident.
The G7 debate also reflects differing views on how far energy sanctions should be used as leverage in diplomacy. The previous Biden administration backed the price cap on the basis that forcing Russia to spend more on logistics would reduce funds available for the war effort. The current US administration has been more sceptical about tightening the mechanism, declining to join Britain, the EU and Canada when they agreed in September to lower the crude ceiling from 60 dollars to 47.6 dollars per barrel.
Even with a full maritime services ban, implementation would remain a central challenge. Regulators and researchers have documented extensive use of ship-to-ship transfers, re-flagging and complex corporate structures designed to obscure the origin of Russian barrels and the entities involved in their transport. As a result, EU and G7 officials are examining possible complementary measures, including closer scrutiny of high-risk routes, more systematic tracking of older tankers and deeper cooperation with coastal states and flag registries.
The discussions are at an early stage and no formal legislative proposal has yet been published. Officials involved nevertheless describe a clear shift towards tighter controls on Russian oil logistics rather than any relaxation of existing measures. If adopted, a maritime services ban agreed at both EU and G7 level would bring Western restrictions close to a de facto ban on handling Russian oil, extending sanctions from direct import bans to the infrastructure that underpins Russia’s export trade.
Risk in European Waters: The Shadow Fleet, Sanctions Evasion and Safety Gaps
