Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has indicated his intention to visit Russia in May 2025 for the anniversary of the Soviet victory in World War II. Fico stated that he sees no reason to cancel this visit, despite the broader European Union’s isolation of Russia due to its ongoing war in Ukraine and annexation of Crimea in 2014.
Since his recent return to power, Fico has expressed a desire to maintain positive relations with both Ukraine and Russia. While reaffirming Slovakia’s support for Ukraine’s EU integration and the continuation of gas transit through Ukraine’s pipeline network, Fico also hinted at the possibility of improving ties with Russia.
This comes at a time when most EU leaders have distanced themselves from the Russian government due to its aggressive actions in Ukraine. Fico, however, appears to be testing whether Slovakia can pursue a more balanced foreign policy, maintaining ties with both Kyiv and Moscow.
In a recent informal meeting between Slovakia’s Foreign Minister and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, some observers saw an attempt to gauge public and international reactions to the Slovak government’s potential re-engagement with Moscow.
Fico’s stance has been interpreted as an effort to navigate Slovakia’s energy dependencies and geopolitical alliances, balancing between Western support for Ukraine and the ongoing need for energy resources, which have historically come from Russia.
Slovakia’s Energy Dependence on Russia
Energy policy remains a significant factor in Slovakia’s relations with Russia. Slovakia has long been dependent on Russian gas, and Gazprom has played a crucial role in the country’s energy security since the 1990s. Many political figures in Slovakia built their careers on maintaining good relations with Moscow, especially in the energy sector.
Despite Gazprom’s reduced role in Europe due to the EU’s efforts to diversify energy sources and the company’s declining financial fortunes, Slovakia’s energy dependency on Russia persists.
Fico has shown no sign of shifting away from this dependence, instead appearing to double down on energy ties with Moscow. This position contrasts with broader EU efforts to reduce reliance on Russian energy in response to the geopolitical tensions caused by Russia’s actions in Ukraine.
EU and NATO Implications
Fico’s approach is likely to raise concerns among Slovakia’s European partners. The EU and NATO have consistently condemned Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its military involvement in Ukraine, which they regard as violations of international law and sovereignty.
Fico’s potential participation in Russia’s Victory Day celebrations could be perceived as a departure from Slovakia’s commitment to the Western bloc’s unified stance on Russia.
Most EU leaders have avoided official contact with the Kremlin, with only Hungary’s Viktor Orbán maintaining a more open line of communication with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Fico’s decision to attend such a high-profile event could be seen as aligning Slovakia with Hungary’s more Russia-friendly approach, which has drawn criticism from other EU member states.
This has raised questions about the implications for Slovakia’s standing within the EU and NATO, where there is strong support for Ukraine and broad opposition to Russia’s actions.
Slovakia’s role in providing military support to Ukraine further complicates the situation, as the country manufactures weapons used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in their defence against Russian aggression.
Historical Context and Domestic Reactions
Fico’s plan to visit Russia for Victory Day has also provoked reactions within Slovakia, particularly given the country’s historical experience with both Nazi occupation during World War II and Soviet domination in the aftermath.
In 1944, Slovak citizens took part in an uprising against Nazi forces, and in 1968, the country resisted the Soviet-led Warsaw Pact invasion during the Prague Spring.
Fico’s critics have questioned the appropriateness of the Prime Minister attending an event alongside a leader seen by many as challenging the post-war international order.
Russia’s actions in Ukraine, including the 2014 annexation of Crimea, have drawn comparisons to Nazi Germany’s annexations in the 1930s. In both cases, the aggressor violated international law by altering borders through force or manipulation.
Fico’s participation in Moscow’s Victory Day celebrations could be interpreted as downplaying the importance of international law and the post-World War II order, which established the principle of respect for national borders and sovereignty.
Slovakia’s Position in a Changing Europe
The broader question is how Slovakia’s foreign policy under Fico will evolve, particularly in relation to its EU partners. Fico’s populist approach and emphasis on maintaining good relations with Russia could risk isolating Slovakia within the EU, where most members have adopted a firm stance against Moscow.
The potential shift in Slovakia’s foreign policy could complicate its relations with Western allies, particularly if Fico’s government is perceived as moving closer to Russia.
While Fico may be modelling his approach on Viktor Orbán’s balancing act between the West and Moscow, it remains unclear whether Slovakia will be able to maintain such a position without facing pushback from its EU and NATO partners.
Orbán has managed to maintain his relationship with Putin while avoiding full alignment with Russia, but Fico’s participation in an event like Victory Day could place Slovakia in a more difficult position.
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