US President Biden Could Shift Ukraine’s NATO Application Status by 2025

According to a recent report by the Financial Times, citing an unnamed Western official, US President Joe Biden may reconsider the status of Ukraine’s NATO application before he leaves office in January 2025. This development comes after recent discussions between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Biden in the United States.

The report highlights that Biden will chair a meeting between Ukraine and its allies in Germany on 12 October 2024, marking a critical juncture in Ukraine’s efforts to secure membership in the Western military alliance. Ukraine’s NATO bid has been a long-standing objective, though progress has been slow due to the ongoing war with Russia and concerns from some NATO members.

Biden’s Evolving Stance on Ukraine’s NATO Membership

The Financial Times noted that after talks between Zelensky and Biden, there are preliminary indications that Biden may agree to advance Ukraine’s membership bid before he leaves office. However, the details of how this advancement might manifest remain unclear.

Although Biden has publicly supported Ukraine’s membership in NATO, he has so far resisted taking active steps to expedite the process, such as issuing a formal invitation to Ukraine to join the alliance. This has led to frustration among Ukrainian officials, who view NATO membership as a key component of their long-term security strategy.

As Zelensky departed the United States this past weekend, he remarked that October would be “a time for decisions,” signalling the importance of the upcoming meeting in Germany.

Challenges to Ukraine’s NATO Membership

NATO membership for Ukraine remains a sensitive issue, especially given the ongoing war with Russia. A major challenge is determining how NATO’s mutual defence clause, enshrined in Article 5, would apply to Ukraine while parts of its territory remain under Russian occupation. Most of NATO’s 32 member states are reluctant to consider full membership for Ukraine until there is a complete and lasting ceasefire and clearly defined territorial boundaries.

Some Western officials have proposed adopting a model similar to that of West Germany during the Cold War. Under this arrangement, West Germany was integrated into NATO for over three decades before the fall of the Berlin Wall and reunification with East Germany. The idea is gaining traction, particularly in the White House, which has historically been one of the most sceptical voices regarding Ukraine’s NATO membership.

Jeremy Shapiro, head of the Washington office of the European Council on Foreign Relations, commented on the situation, stating: “The West German model is gaining momentum, especially in the White House.” He added that a “land-for-NATO membership” solution might be the only feasible path forward, though no official has publicly endorsed such a strategy.

Security Concerns Remain Paramount

Despite the potential for advancing Ukraine’s NATO bid, there is widespread recognition that Russia is unlikely to accept Ukraine’s entry into the alliance without significant opposition. Some fear that moving ahead with membership could provoke further conflict.

An unnamed Ukrainian government official, speaking to the Financial Times, stressed that security guarantees are crucial to any lasting resolution:

“The most important thing for us is security guarantees. Real guarantees. Without them, this won’t end the war, but only provoke another one.”

Ukraine has consistently maintained that NATO membership is essential for securing its future in the face of Russian aggression. However, the path to membership is fraught with complexities, particularly given the geopolitical risks and the need for a comprehensive peace agreement.