Prof Theofanis Exadaktylos: New Popular Front Has to Compromise with Macron’s Centrist Party To Form a Coalition

The French Far Right fell short of expectations last night in the second round of the French legislative elections.

Following the condemning results for President Macron in the European elections in June, and him calling a snap legislative election in France, LePen’s RN was hoping to capitalise on the reaction against the government.

RN managed to win the elections’ first round, where the party received about one third of the total votes, throwing Macron’s party third and behind the New Popular Front (a coalition of the left wing) and casting a fear that they would succeed in forming a government after the second round.

At first sight, while this is not a result favourable for Macron, the second round of the legislative elections last night has a few headlines and lessons to take away:

The New Popular Front victory suggests that the French electorate want a different economic and social policy trajectory following the rise of the cost of living and Macron’s insistence on certain issues (for example, pension reform).

No party has managed to gain an absolute majority of the French assembly. It is almost a three-way split.

In addition, the New Popular Front is a coalition of left-wing parties who have cannibalised the left-wing part of the spectrum in French politics and have been frequently at competition with each other. Now they are called to work together. They will need to mature quickly if they want to handle a potential government.

Co-habitation is not unknown in France, where the President and the Prime Minister may come from different political homes.

However, this assembly requires a coalition government, and the New Popular Front will have to compromise with Macron’s centrist party if they want to form a coalition. To that end, Macron’s experiment may have succeeded in grounding the New Popular Front to a more pragmatic political programme.

The turnout was high, people delivering a message that while LePen’s RN is the most popular party, they don’t want them in government at the national level.

Nonetheless, the country wakes up divided, as there will be RN voters who will feel that the RN deserved to be in government. Their power has grown substantially, hence there’s no guarantee that the preference may not tilt their way next time.

The markets are naturally anxious, the uncertainty in trying to form a coalition and the ambitious economic programme of the NPF may take France out of fiscal discipline.

The French electorate cordoned LePen but also gave a clear message to the rest that they have to cooperate in the mainstream political life of France and work out solutions to the big political questions.

At the end, this may have been a clear victory for democracy but one that demands the democratic forces to work together to restore faith in the political system.

Dr. Theofanis Exadaktylos is Professor in European Politics at the University of Surrey.

He holds a PhD in Politics from the University of Exeter. His doctoral thesis was on the Europeanisation of national foreign policies of the member states with particular focus on Greece and Germany.

He holds an MSc. in European Political Economy: Integration from the London School of Economics, and a BA in Economics and International Relations (Europe and the former USSR) from Tufts University.

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