Russia has begun withdrawing its military personnel from the Damascus region, evacuating at least 400 soldiers in recent days, according to The Financial Times. This move follows negotiations with Syria’s new leadership, which recently overthrew the 24-year regime of President Bashar al-Assad. The withdrawal raises questions about Russia’s future presence and strategic influence in Syria and the wider region.
Coordinated Withdrawal from Damascus
Kamal Lababidi, a member of the political bureau of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)—the Islamist group that led the offensive to topple Assad—confirmed the coordinated evacuation. Russian forces stationed at the headquarters of the Fourth Division of the Syrian Army in Qudsaya, a suburb of Damascus, have left the area. Russian military personnel from the country’s embassy in Damascus have also reportedly been relocated.
Lababidi revealed that further negotiations are underway to arrange the evacuation of Russian troops from other locations in Syria. He described meetings between Russian military envoys and HTS representatives to ensure the safe passage of Russian convoys.
In a ground operation, a convoy of nearly 100 military vehicles, including armoured personnel carriers, fuel tankers, mobile medical units, and other equipment, departed Damascus for Russia’s Khmeimim Air Base in northwest Syria. From there, the soldiers were flown back to Russia. Video footage shared with media outlets showed the convoy exiting the Damascus region, signalling the largest troop withdrawal since the fall of Assad’s regime.
Uncertain Future for Russian Presence in Syria
The withdrawal marks a significant shift in Russia’s role in Syria, where its military support was pivotal in propping up Assad’s government during the Syrian Civil War. Moscow’s future presence remains uncertain, with analysts suggesting that Russia may be scaling back its operations to focus resources elsewhere, particularly as its military is stretched thin due to ongoing operations in Ukraine and commitments in Africa.
However, the Khmeimim Air Base and the naval facility in Tartus remain critical assets for Moscow. These bases serve as logistical hubs for Russian military operations in the Mediterranean and Africa. Losing them would significantly weaken Russia’s strategic position in the region.
Lababidi stated that Russia has not evacuated Khmeimim but is reducing its presence at other installations. To secure its foothold, Russia is reportedly negotiating with Syria’s new government, potentially offering financial assistance, energy supplies, or political backing in exchange for retaining access to its military infrastructure.
Diplomatic and Strategic Ramifications
Russia’s embassy in Damascus continues to operate, though Lababidi indicated a reduction in diplomatic activity. The embassy has also become a refuge for members of prominent Syrian families closely tied to Assad’s regime, offering them protection in the wake of the government’s collapse.
The fall of Assad’s regime on 8 December followed a swift 12-day offensive led by HTS and its allies, culminating in the capture of Damascus. Assad and his family have since fled to Moscow, where they have been granted asylum. Russia’s state news agencies, TASS and RIA Novosti, confirmed the development, further illustrating Moscow’s shifting priorities in Syria.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggests that the loss of military bases in Syria could severely impact Russia’s ability to project power in Africa. Russia’s operations in Libya and the Sahel region depend heavily on its Syrian logistics network. A diminished presence in Syria could weaken its influence over authoritarian regimes in Africa, potentially eroding Moscow’s geopolitical leverage.
Strategic Challenges for Russia
The withdrawal comes amid broader strategic challenges for Russia, which has been under increasing pressure in multiple theatres. Ukrainian intelligence recently reported that Russia has been using military transport planes and ships to repatriate troops, equipment, and weaponry from Syria. This redeployment is seen as a measure to bolster resources for ongoing conflicts and to address growing domestic and international strains.
Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported on 12 December that Russia is negotiating an agreement with Syria’s new leadership to retain its bases in Tartus and Khmeimim. The deal would ensure continued Russian military operations in the Mediterranean, safeguarding its interests in the region despite the fall of Assad.
