Moldova’s referendum on whether to amend its constitution and pave the way for full membership in the European Union remains unresolved, with results showing the Yes and No votes in a deadlock. As of now, the No vote leads marginally with 50.1% compared to 49.9% for Yes, with 97% of the votes counted. The unexpected outcome has surprised many, as pre-referendum surveys indicated a strong lead for the pro-EU Yes camp.
The referendum, although non-binding, was a crucial signal of Moldova’s direction towards European integration. It was expected to confirm the country’s path towards membership in the EU. However, the narrow result has cast doubt on the decisiveness of the referendum, stirring concerns over the political and social forces at play.
Foreign Interference Allegations
Moldovan President Maia Sandu, who campaigned vigorously for the Yes vote, has expressed frustration with the outcome, accusing foreign actors of meddling in the vote. Sandu claims that Russia has been actively involved in swaying the results, pointing to allegations that the Kremlin funded efforts to manipulate public opinion. “This is an unprecedented assault on democracy,” she said, referring to reports of widespread vote-buying and disinformation campaigns. Russia has denied the accusations, but Sandu’s government insists they have evidence that up to 300,000 votes were bought, a claim Moscow has refuted.
The result of the referendum has raised fears about the stability of Moldova’s political trajectory. Although the outcome does not legally alter the country’s EU accession process, it was intended to cement Moldova’s pro-EU stance and make it more difficult to reverse. Now, with the vote nearly split, Moldova’s future alignment between the EU and Russia looks increasingly precarious.
Presidential Election Enters Second Round
The referendum was not the only significant vote on Sunday. Moldovans also participated in the first round of the presidential election, where Sandu, the pro-EU incumbent, secured the lead but fell short of an outright majority. With only 41% of the vote, Sandu now faces a run-off against her rival, Aleksandr Stoianoglo, who garnered 27%. Stoianoglo, supported by the pro-Russian Party of Socialists, performed better than anticipated, adding further complexity to the political landscape. The second round of the presidential election, scheduled for early November, is likely to become a highly contentious race.
Several presidential candidates, including Stoianoglo, boycotted the referendum. Despite this, Stoianoglo has maintained that he supports Moldova’s “European aspirations,” but he opposes any constitutional changes aimed at accelerating EU membership. The question now is whether the other candidates, who include populist Renato Usatii and former Gagauzian governor Irina Vlah, will rally behind Stoianoglo in the run-off. If they do, Sandu’s chances of re-election could be at serious risk.
The Impact of External Influence
The shadow of foreign interference loomed large over both the referendum and the presidential election. Sandu and her supporters have consistently warned of Russian involvement in Moldova’s political processes, and those concerns appear to be validated by numerous reports of vote-buying. The BBC, which covered the elections from the ground, reported instances of voters admitting to being paid to cast their ballots, with one woman stating that she had expected payment after voting but had been “tricked” by her contact.
Such incidents are not isolated. In recent months, fugitive Moldovan businessman Ilan Shor, who is accused of channeling large sums of Russian money into Moldova, publicly called for voters to reject Sandu. Shor, who resides in exile, also urged Moldovans to vote for anyone but Sandu in the presidential race, further stirring doubts about the legitimacy of the election process.
Voter Sentiment and Regional Divide
The referendum has highlighted the stark divide within Moldovan society. While many urban voters, particularly the younger generation, are eager to embrace a future within the European Union, rural areas appear more sceptical. Sandu’s support came primarily from the cities, where voters expressed their desire for greater economic opportunities and political stability through closer ties with Europe.
“We have to choose a European future for our country, for our children,” one voter told the BBC. “For geopolitics, for peace, that’s the most important.”
In contrast, regions with stronger ties to Russia, such as Transnistria, displayed significant opposition to constitutional changes. Transnistria, an unrecognised breakaway state backed by Moscow, continues to have deep economic, political, and military ties to Russia, complicating Moldova’s aspirations towards European integration. The region’s role in the election and referendum has further underscored the enduring influence of Russian interests within the country.
What Lies Ahead for Moldova
Moldova’s immediate future remains uncertain. While the referendum is not legally binding, it was meant to solidify Moldova’s European trajectory. Instead, the close result has exposed the country’s internal divisions and its vulnerability to external manipulation. Maia Sandu faces a tough battle ahead, not just to win re-election, but to navigate Moldova’s path towards the European Union in the face of growing domestic and foreign opposition.
As Moldova prepares for the second round of the presidential election, all eyes will be on whether Sandu can regain momentum and secure her country’s European future. The outcome will likely hinge on whether she can overcome the alliance of pro-Russian forces and the persistent shadow of foreign interference.
Update: According to the latest data from Moldova’s Central Election Commission, with 99.46% of the votes counted, citizens have narrowly confirmed a positive outcome in the constitutional referendum on EU membership. The margin between supporters and opponents was extremely tight, with just 12,243 votes separating the two sides. This slim victory shows the deep divisions within the country regarding its future direction, as Moldova continues to grapple with competing influences from the European Union and Russia.
