Russian President Vladimir Putin has heightened nuclear threats to the West, marking a shift in Russia’s nuclear doctrine. The change comes at a pivotal moment as Ukraine’s Western allies, particularly the United States and the United Kingdom, deliberate whether to supply Ukraine with advanced Storm Shadow missiles, which could strike deep into Russian territory.
Speaking at a meeting with the Russian Security Council, Putin outlined changes to Russia’s nuclear posture, signalling that Moscow could use nuclear weapons not just in response to a nuclear attack but also if Western powers participate in or support conventional attacks on Russia. This warning comes as NATO allies consider granting Ukraine access to advanced missile systems capable of hitting targets inside Russia, including airbases, ammunition depots, and command centres.
Putin’s rhetoric is not entirely new but represents a clear escalation. The doctrine shift indicates that Russia could respond to conventional military aggression with nuclear force, a significant lowering of its nuclear threshold. This adjustment demonstrates Moscow’s increasing desperation as Ukraine gains international support and continues to resist Russian advances.
Russia’s previous nuclear doctrine, updated in 2020, allowed for the use of nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear strike or if the state’s existence was critically threatened during a conventional conflict. The new amendments could expand these conditions to include attacks using advanced Western weaponry, which Putin considers an existential threat.
Threats to NATO Allies and Ukraine’s Missile Capabilities
The immediate context of Putin’s nuclear revision is the ongoing debate within NATO about supplying Ukraine with long-range missiles, particularly the UK- and France-manufactured Storm Shadow missiles. These missiles, equipped with US guidance technology, could provide Ukraine with the ability to strike Russian military targets far beyond the frontlines, including inside Russia’s borders.
Ukraine has been lobbying for these capabilities as it seeks to disrupt Russian military supply lines and target critical infrastructure supporting Russia’s war efforts. However, Western powers have been cautious about directly provoking Moscow by enabling attacks on Russian soil. The risk of escalation, particularly nuclear, is a significant concern, especially given Putin’s warnings that using these missiles could bring Russia and NATO into direct conflict.
Putin did not specify which countries could be targets for retaliation under the revised doctrine but made it clear that Moscow would view any Western support in such attacks as participation in aggression. The ambiguity surrounding which actions might trigger a nuclear response is a key part of Russia’s strategy, keeping adversaries guessing and increasing the psychological pressure on Ukraine’s allies.
Lowering the Nuclear Threshold
Experts suggest that Putin’s threats mark one of the most direct nuclear warnings since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The potential codification of these changes into Russia’s official nuclear doctrine could significantly lower the threshold for nuclear strikes. This shift introduces more specific criteria for Moscow to authorise the use of nuclear weapons, including situations where it believes there is a massed aerial assault using drones, aircraft, or missiles.
Additionally, the revised doctrine would allow for a nuclear response to attacks on Belarus, a close ally of Russia, which has served as a staging ground for Russian military operations against Ukraine. Any threat to Belarus’s sovereignty, Putin indicated, could be treated as an attack on Russia itself, raising the stakes for NATO countries neighbouring Belarus.
While Putin’s pronouncements have caused alarm in the West, experts caution that the Kremlin’s strategy is still deliberately vague. This ambiguity gives the Kremlin flexibility while maximising the psychological impact of its threats.
The Western Response and Strategic Calculations
Western leaders are acutely aware of the risks involved in providing Ukraine with offensive capabilities that could strike inside Russia. US President Joe Biden recently acknowledged the complexity of the situation, stating that while no final decision had been made on providing Storm Shadow missiles, the US was committed to ensuring that Ukraine has the tools it needs to defend itself.
Biden, speaking at an event focused on Ukraine’s reconstruction, emphasised his determination to accelerate military support for Ukraine, noting that an announcement of further actions was imminent.
However, the potential for nuclear escalation remains a central consideration in Western decision-making. Supplying Ukraine with long-range strike capabilities, while crucial for its defence, risks provoking a catastrophic response from Moscow.
In the UK, where Storm Shadow missiles are produced, the government has faced similar debates about the risks of escalating the conflict. France, another key player in producing these missiles, shares the UK’s concerns but also recognises the importance of continuing to support Ukraine in its fight for survival.
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