Ursula von der Leyen says the European Commission will “soon” table a 19th package of measures against Russia, aimed at cryptoassets, banking and parts of the energy trade, after a call with US President Donald Trump.
She also wants the EU to quicken its exit from Russian fossil fuels. Brussels delayed unveiling the draft to align with G7 partners following a US push for tighter measures.
The outline is familiar: close evasion channels that have grown around earlier rounds, harden attestation and due-diligence for shippers, insurers and financiers, and plug gaps in crypto and other financial conduits. The Commission will also argue for an accelerated drawdown of what remains of Russian energy in the EU mix.
Why the packages come in waves
Sanctions are intended to restrict the revenue, technology and finance feeding Russia’s war economy while raising the cost of aggression. Since 2022 the EU has adopted 18 packages, moving from broad trade and finance measures to a focus on enforcement. Unanimity rules mean each round must clear 27 capitals, producing carve-outs and sequencing rather than a single, all-encompassing embargo.
Is it working?
Partly. The G7/EU oil price-cap kept barrels moving but compressed margins. After leakage under the fixed $60 ceiling, July’s EU measures backed a moving cap (set below market averages) and expanded vessel and network actions, with tighter attestations for service providers. Russia has adapted with non-coalition shipping, discounts and opaque ownership, sustaining high volumes but at lower net take per barrel.
Gas dependence has fallen sharply. Russia’s share of EU gas imports is down to ~12% (Q2 2025), yet LNG still lands in several member states. Eurostat-based reporting put EU purchases of Russian LNG at €4.48bn in H1 2025. EU fossil-fuel payments were about €21.9bn in 2024, well below pre-war norms but not negligible.
The politics do not go away
Old fault lines are set to reappear. Hungary blocked the listing of Patriarch Kirill in 2022 and secured pipeline-oil derogations. Maritime states — Greece, Cyprus, Malta — have resisted steps that would penalise EU-linked shipping when trades are cap-compliant. Belgium’s diamond centre delayed a ban pending G7 traceability, now phased in; Austria’s bank exposure has coloured debates even without outright vetoes.
Greek tankers: mainstream trade and the ‘shadow fleet’
Two realities sit side by side. Mainstream Greek managers have legally carried Russian crude when Urals priced at or below the cap, as allowed by coalition rules. Separately, cross-border investigations document large sales of ageing Greek-owned tankers to opaque buyers since 2022; many later joined the so-called shadow fleet moving Russian oil outside Western services. The sales themselves were legal; the concern is how those ships were subsequently used.
Where the money still comes from
Russia has redirected crude towards China and India and increased sales of fuels and gas to Türkiye and Asian markets. August 2025 estimates suggest monthly fossil-fuel revenues from China ~€5.7bn, India ~€3.6bn, Türkiye ~€3.0bn, and the EU ~€1.2bn — snapshots that explain the continued focus on G7/UK/EU coordination of shipping services, attestations and listings.
The 19th package — what would matter
Three elements would bite if executed cleanly. First, financial and crypto curbs that make evasion through intermediaries harder. Second, tighter shipping attestations and more targeted vessel/network designations to raise the cost of running outside the cap. Third, a firmer line on LNG and residual gas consistent with the Commission’s call to accelerate disengagement. Delivery will depend on Council unanimity — and on parallel steps in London and Washington — but the centre of gravity has clearly shifted from headline bans to closing loopholes.
The question now is less whether another package appears and more whether enforcement can keep pace with adaptation. If the EU’s 19th round lands alongside aligned UK/US measures, it will test whether the price-cap coalition can compress Russia’s net energy take further without destabilising Europe’s own energy balance.
