North Korea’s support for Russia’s war in Ukraine has raised international eyebrows, marking an unprecedented shift in its foreign relations strategy. According to South Korean intelligence sources, thousands of North Korean soldiers have reportedly been dispatched to Russia, with more expected by year’s end. The motivations behind Pyongyang’s decision seem rooted in immediate economic gains and strategic alliances, though analysts caution the long-term implications may outweigh these benefits.
One of the key incentives for North Korea’s participation in the Ukraine war is the economic compensation offered by Moscow. Reports from South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) indicate that each North Korean soldier deployed in support of Russia receives approximately $2,000 per month. With an estimated 10,000 troops involved, this amounts to over $200 million annually. For a country like North Korea, which is grappling with severe financial strains, this revenue stream is significant.
Beyond direct payments to soldiers, North Korea stands to benefit from Russia’s assistance in addressing its persistent food shortage. North Korean agriculture faces substantial deficits, with production falling around one million tons short of annual requirements. In previous years, Russian rice aid has fluctuated between 50,000 and 100,000 tons. However, recent agreements may involve shipments of up to 700,000 tons, which would cover more than half of North Korea’s food deficit.
Additionally, around 4,000 North Korean workers in Russia reportedly receive wages averaging $800 monthly. Though not as substantial as military compensation, these earnings contribute to Pyongyang’s efforts to stabilise its economy.
Strategic Payoff: Technology and Defence Support
Beyond economic relief, Pyongyang’s alignment with Moscow offers potential technological advancements, particularly in space technology. Russia is thought to be assisting North Korea in developing capabilities for launching military reconnaissance satellites—a key interest for Pyongyang as it seeks to bolster its surveillance over the Korean Peninsula and surrounding regions.
However, arguably the most valuable component of North Korea’s alliance with Russia is the expectation of mutual military support in the event of hostilities on the Korean Peninsula. North Korea’s decision to send troops to Ukraine signals a readiness to actively support Russia’s military ambitions, setting a precedent for Moscow to reciprocate. This prospect of direct Russian support adds weight to North Korea’s defence strategy, which has historically relied primarily on its own resources and its alliance with China.
The Short-Term Versus Long-Term Calculations
While these gains are evident, South Korean analysts suggest that the costs of this alliance could escalate in the coming years. The NIS-affiliated Institute for National Security Strategy (INSS) recently released a report asserting that North Korea’s usefulness to Russia might diminish once the Ukraine war concludes. In such a scenario, Pyongyang risks finding itself isolated, particularly if ties with its traditional ally, China, continue to strain.
The INSS report points to a potential shift in US foreign policy as another factor influencing North Korea’s decision. With the US presidential election on the horizon, a possible victory for Donald Trump could signal a strategic shift, particularly if a new administration opts to withdraw support for Ukraine. Such an outcome would reshape the international landscape, potentially weakening the current alignment of forces that North Korea has sought to leverage through its cooperation with Russia.
Perspectives from Seoul: Weighing the Benefits
Despite the potential drawbacks, there are those in South Korea who see the deal as beneficial for Pyongyang. Wi Sung-lac, a former South Korean ambassador to Russia, believes that North Korea’s involvement in Ukraine has brought about a “not bad deal” by securing food, funds, and technical support. He argues that North Korea’s immediate concerns, such as feeding its population and stabilising its economy, are effectively addressed through Russia’s compensation.
Wi also noted the potential food relief that could stem from North Korea’s sale of artillery shells to Russia, given the two nations’ growing arms trade. By trading munitions, North Korea has likely obtained additional rice supplies, easing pressure on its agricultural system.
Moreover, Nam Sung-wook, a former president of the INSS, downplayed the notion that Pyongyang’s alliance with Moscow would be short-lived, arguing that North Korea remains strategically valuable to Russia. He pointed to a recently renewed mutual defence pact between the two countries, under which each pledges to assist the other if attacked. This pact, he suggests, provides Moscow with a bargaining chip in its dealings with the US, potentially creating leverage in future negotiations with Washington, much as China did in previous years.
Image source: Elpais.com
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