As NATO’s 32 foreign ministers gather in Antalya, Turkey, for preparatory talks ahead of the full summit in The Hague this June, attention is focused not only on budgetary commitments but also on an emerging diplomatic dilemma: the possible exclusion of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from next month’s meeting in the Netherlands.
According to diplomatic sources, the United States has expressed objections to Zelenskyy’s attendance. The Trump administration is reportedly reluctant to extend an invitation, reflecting the strained relationship between the two leaders. This would mark a sharp departure from previous summits, where Zelenskyy was received as a guest of honour.
“This would be a diplomatic disaster for the Netherlands—no spokesperson could credibly justify it,” said one NATO official. However, sources stress that the final decision has not been made and that “question marks” still remain with six weeks to go until the summit.
Focus on a New NATO Benchmark
The primary agenda in Antalya is the proposed new NATO defence spending threshold. Matthew Whitaker, the recently appointed U.S. ambassador to NATO, anticipates “a robust discussion” around President Trump’s demand that alliance members increase defence spending to 5 per cent of GDP.
Initially viewed by European diplomats as a bargaining position, the 5 per cent target is now being taken seriously. “We are keen to hear how our allies intend to meet this target,” Whitaker stated.
At present, NATO’s spending benchmark stands at 2 per cent of GDP. Under the new proposal, member states would be expected to reach 3.5 per cent in direct defence spending within seven years, increasing by 0.2 percentage points annually. An additional 1.5 per cent would be allocated to defence-related expenditures, such as cybersecurity infrastructure and civil engineering projects necessary for military mobility.
The goal, insiders say, is to demonstrate sufficient progress to persuade President Trump to attend the summit in The Hague. “We fully expect that Donald Trump will be there,” Whitaker said. Nonetheless, there remains scepticism within the alliance over his final commitment.
European Allies Pressured
There appears to be limited room for negotiation on the new benchmarks. “This is going to be it,” a senior official commented. However, further discussions are anticipated on how compliance will be monitored and what spending categories will count towards the target.
Earlier this year, U.S. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth made it clear that Europe should not continue to rely on American security guarantees. Trump’s administration has repeatedly criticised European NATO members as “freeloaders”, accusing them of using U.S. military protection to channel funds into domestic welfare programmes.
“We are asking our European allies to become more equal partners,” said Whitaker.
The implications for the Netherlands, as summit host, are particularly acute. Reaching the 3.5 per cent target would require tens of billions of euros in additional defence spending—a politically sensitive issue for the current Dutch coalition. At the presentation of its spring budget update, the Dutch government said it would defer decisions on funding until after the summit.
“That’s a rather peculiar stance for a host country,” said one NATO source. “You are expected to raise your hand and lead by example, not sit at the back of the classroom waiting for the bell.”
Ukraine and Russia
Despite the focus on spending, Ukraine remains a central concern. Ministers are discussing efforts to broker a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, with eyes on Istanbul—located 700 kilometres north of Antalya—as a potential venue for direct talks between Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin later this week.
The outcome of those discussions could influence what is addressed at the June summit in The Hague. “It is difficult to predict what will be discussed regarding Ukraine while peace talks are ongoing,” Whitaker said.
A Compressed Schedule
Sources have indicated that the summit in The Hague will be significantly shorter than previous editions. On Tuesday, 24 June, proceedings will begin with a royal dinner hosted by the King of the Netherlands. The following day, a single plenary session involving heads of state and government is planned.
This condensed schedule stands in stark contrast to last year’s summit in Washington, which included formal meetings with Indo-Pacific partners—Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand—as well as sessions with the European Union and a full NATO-Ukraine Council featuring Zelenskyy.
None of these extended sessions are planned for the gathering in The Hague. The summit’s brevity is reportedly intended to align with President Trump’s preference for short engagements, limiting protocol to avoid internal disputes and minimise the risk of discord.
In the lead-up to the summit, NATO defence ministers will convene at alliance headquarters in Brussels in two weeks’ time. This meeting will be the last opportunity for formal deliberations ahead of the summit’s opening on 25 June.
Whether or not President Zelenskyy will be in attendance remains to be seen. For the time being, his invitation hangs in the balance—another potential test of unity for an alliance navigating internal tensions and external threats alike.
