Tehran has conveyed to regional diplomats its intentions to deliver a “strong and complex” military response to recent Israeli airstrikes. Iranian officials outlined plans for an attack employing more powerful warheads and sophisticated weaponry, escalating the scale of prior confrontations.
Israel’s October 26 offensive marked a significant escalation, striking military assets but sparing Iranian nuclear and oil facilities. Israeli authorities have warned that any retaliation from Iran would prompt a more severe response. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu underscored Israel’s commitment to countering any threat from Iran, emphasising that recent strikes had exposed vulnerabilities in Iran’s defences.
Iranian officials privately briefed diplomats from Egypt, Bahrain, and Oman on a broad plan for retaliation, with indications that Tehran may incorporate Iraqi territory for launching attacks. Any new strikes, they said, could go beyond drones and missiles, deploying heavier warheads than those used previously. In recent confrontations, Iran has relied primarily on medium-range missiles, such as the Emad, Ghadr, Kheibar Shekan, and Fattah models.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei addressed the issue in Tehran on Saturday, promising a “tooth-breaking response” to Israel. An Iranian official indicated that recent casualties, including four soldiers and a civilian, have intensified calls within Iran for a response that would involve the regular army. Although Iran’s conventional military would not likely conduct ground operations, its potential involvement signals a departure from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ usual responsibility for Israel-related military activities.
The timing of Iran’s planned response is also under consideration, with officials noting that any action would likely come after the U.S. presidential election on November 5, avoiding perceived interference in American domestic politics. According to U.S. intelligence, Iranian leadership reportedly favours current Vice President Kamala Harris over former President Donald Trump, and any escalated military activity would likely occur after the vote but before the new president’s inauguration.
Meanwhile, the U.S. has responded to the tensions by fortifying its presence in the Middle East. U.S. Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin announced the deployment of additional B-52 bomber aircraft, tanker aircraft, and Navy destroyers to the region, augmenting forces stationed near Israel. This move follows the Pentagon’s decision to withdraw the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group from the region. However, the timing of this withdrawal leaves the U.S. without an aircraft carrier in the area, marking the first such absence since October 2023, when Hamas launched attacks on Israel.
As diplomatic exchanges unfold, Israel has not ruled out targeting Iran’s nuclear and oil sites in the event of a major Iranian strike. Regional officials have expressed concerns over an escalation that could destabilise the broader Middle East. The U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, has publicly cautioned Iran against any further actions, warning of “severe consequences” should Tehran attack Israel or American assets.
Iranian officials initially downplayed intentions to retaliate, but their stance changed following intensified domestic pressure and public statements from senior military officials. On Friday, an Iranian general issued a stark warning of an “unimaginable response,” and President Masoud Pezeshkian reiterated on Sunday that Iran would not let Israel’s actions go unanswered. Pezeshkian added, however, that Tehran may reconsider the scale of its response if a ceasefire were reached in Gaza and Lebanon.
For Israel, the stakes are high, with military planners signalling readiness for a robust response to any Iranian attack. Satellite imagery from the recent Israeli airstrikes indicates that some low-value sites in Iran, such as the Abadan oil refinery, were targeted to signal Israel’s capacity to strike economically significant sites if necessary. Israel’s military has made clear that its ultimate objective remains preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapon capabilities, a stance underscored by Netanyahu’s public remarks last week.
Image source: France24.com
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