Hungary’s political landscape is seeing a significant shift as the main opposition party, TISZA, has nearly caught up to Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s ruling party, Fidesz, in terms of voter support.
According to a recent poll conducted by independent research firm Median, the gap between the two parties is now a slim 4%, with Orbán’s Fidesz maintaining a 43% share of support among voters who have made up their minds, compared to 39% for the TISZA party, led by Péter Magyar.
TISZA’s Rise
The rise of the TISZA party is particularly notable given that its growing support has not come at the expense of Fidesz. Rather, TISZA has gained traction by drawing voters away from other opposition parties, many of which have seen a sharp decline in their popularity. According to the same Median poll, none of the smaller opposition parties currently meet the 5% threshold required to enter Hungary’s parliament, leaving TISZA as the sole viable challenger to Fidesz’s political dominance.
TISZA’s growing influence on the Hungarian political scene can be traced back to the actions of its leader, Péter Magyar, a figure who has rapidly gained prominence since entering the political arena in February 2024. Magyar’s rise followed a series of strong accusations against Orbán’s government, including claims of widespread corruption and the operation of a state-controlled propaganda apparatus. These allegations, combined with his charismatic leadership style, have helped him garner a significant following, positioning him as a formidable opponent to the entrenched power of Fidesz.
Scandal and Political Fallout
One of the key moments that accelerated Magyar’s political rise was his decision to release a recording of a private conversation with his ex-wife, Judit Varga, Hungary’s former Minister of Justice. In the recording, Varga allegedly detailed efforts by Orbán’s aides to interfere in a corruption investigation. This revelation sparked widespread outrage and led to mass protests across the country, increasing pressure on the government and giving Magyar’s newly founded party, TISZA, a significant boost in public support.
The protests, fuelled by frustration over corruption allegations and perceived governmental overreach, created a fertile environment for TISZA to establish itself as the primary alternative to Orbán’s long-standing rule. By June 2024, the party had secured the second-highest number of votes in Hungary’s European Parliament elections, solidifying its status as the leading opposition force.
Shifting Political Dynamics
Despite TISZA’s rising popularity, Fidesz remains a powerful force in Hungarian politics. Orbán’s party, which has dominated Hungarian politics for over a decade, continues to command a significant portion of the electorate. However, the narrowing gap between Fidesz and TISZA points to a potential change in the political winds.
The fact that TISZA’s rise has not diminished Fidesz’s base suggests that Orbán’s core supporters remain loyal, but other opposition parties are losing ground. In recent years, Orbán’s administration has faced growing criticism, both domestically and internationally, over its increasingly authoritarian style of governance, control over the media, and alleged corruption. These concerns have provided fertile ground for TISZA’s message of reform and transparency.
Nonetheless, TISZA’s success has not been without its challenges. The party, which is relatively new, must still prove that it can maintain its current momentum and establish a stable, long-term political platform capable of challenging Fidesz’s hegemony.
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