U.S. President Donald Trump has called for renewed discussions with Russia and China to address nuclear weapons reductions. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday, Trump emphasised the importance of denuclearisation efforts, suggesting that all three nations could work together towards this goal.
Trump’s comments come against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical tensions and stalled nuclear arms agreements. During his first term in office, Trump sought to include China in negotiations to extend the New START treaty, a bilateral agreement with Russia that places limits on deployed nuclear warheads. However, these efforts failed, and the treaty’s future remains uncertain, with its expiration date set for February 2026.
The Context of New START
The New START treaty, signed in 2010, is a key framework for limiting the number of nuclear warheads deployed by both the United States and Russia. However, its implementation has faced significant challenges in recent years. Under President Joe Biden’s administration, U.S.-Russia cooperation on the treaty effectively stalled as relations soured due to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin has leveraged nuclear threats as part of his strategy to deter Western military support for Kyiv.
Speaking in Davos, Trump reflected on earlier talks with Putin regarding potential denuclearisation efforts, expressing optimism about a trilateral approach that would involve China. “We want to see if we can denuclearise, and I think that’s very possible,” Trump stated. He added that both he and Putin were willing to pursue such discussions and claimed that China showed initial interest in participating.
Challenges with China
China’s role in nuclear arms control remains a contentious issue. According to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists and the Federation of American Scientists, China currently has an estimated 500 nuclear warheads. However, the Pentagon projects that Beijing could expand its arsenal to 1,000 warheads by 2030, reflecting its growing military ambitions.
Despite these concerns, it remains unclear whether China is open to joining arms control talks. Trump mentioned a phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping on January 17, prior to his recent inauguration, but did not confirm whether nuclear reduction was discussed.
China and Russia have deepened their strategic partnership in recent years, particularly following the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine in 2022. Beijing has emerged as a key financial backer of Moscow, while the two nations have pledged closer cooperation. A recent video call between Xi and Putin further underscored their alignment, with the leaders committing to “deepen strategic coordination” and support each other’s interests.
Current Nuclear Stockpiles
The United States and Russia collectively hold the majority of the world’s nuclear warheads. According to estimates, the U.S. has 1,770 deployed nuclear warheads, while Russia has 1,710. These figures dwarf China’s current arsenal but highlight the strategic importance of including Beijing in future arms control negotiations.
Efforts to expand multilateral agreements have faced significant obstacles in the past. China has consistently resisted participation in agreements such as New START, arguing that its nuclear arsenal is significantly smaller than those of the U.S. and Russia. Nevertheless, its rapid expansion of nuclear capabilities has raised alarms in Washington and among its allies.
Prospects for Negotiations
Trump’s proposal for trilateral arms control talks faces considerable hurdles. The deepening ties between Moscow and Beijing could complicate efforts to bring the three powers to the negotiating table. Additionally, Russia’s strained relationship with the West following its aggression in Ukraine remains a major impediment to any diplomatic progress.
Despite these challenges, Trump expressed optimism about the potential for progress. “That would have been an unbelievable thing for the planet,” he said, reflecting on earlier efforts to engage both Russia and China on nuclear reductions. Whether such negotiations can be revived remains uncertain, especially as geopolitical rivalries intensify.
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