Following his recent re-election, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump reportedly held a private call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to sources cited by The Washington Post. While the conversation remains unconfirmed by both Trump’s camp and the Kremlin, those with knowledge of the call emphasise its confidential nature and sensitive content. Unlike Trump’s publicised discussions with leaders such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, his call with Putin was veiled in secrecy.
Sources familiar with the call revealed that Trump cautioned Putin against escalating the conflict in Ukraine, reminding him of the significant U.S. military presence in Europe. Trump further advocated for immediate peace negotiations to halt the ongoing war, briefly touching on territorial issues involving Ukrainian regions currently under Russian control. This aspect of the conversation suggests Trump’s intent to shape the discourse on Ukraine’s territorial integrity, potentially creating a path for negotiations that might leave some territories under Russian administration post-conflict.
While the details of Putin’s response remain undisclosed, analysts suggest that his reaction could soon be evident in Russia’s approach to the war. Despite Trump’s advice to de-escalate, Russia has continued missile and drone strikes across Ukraine, leading to heightened destruction of infrastructure as winter approaches—often described by Western media as potentially the harshest for Ukraine since the conflict began.
Ukraine’s Measured Response
Informed of Trump’s call with Putin, Kyiv has reacted calmly, viewing the contact as a predictable first step by the President-elect. Trump had previously signalled his intention to open discussions with both Putin and Zelensky to explore solutions to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Analysts suggest Ukraine’s cautious response reflects an understanding of Trump’s long-standing advocacy for dialogue as a means to resolve international disputes.
However, the implications of this dialogue have sparked concern among those wary of Trump’s approach to Russia. Observers in Ukraine fear that any negotiated outcome could involve concessions on Ukrainian territories—a scenario that would likely prove unpopular domestically.
Trump’s Foreign Policy Vision
Trump’s diplomatic efforts with Putin are consistent with his broader foreign policy stance, favouring direct engagement over prolonged military involvement. During his previous term, Trump repeatedly stressed the need for European allies to contribute more towards collective defence, a policy stance he seems prepared to extend in his dealings with Russia and the war in Ukraine.
Yet, this approach could also entail complexities for Ukraine. Trump’s negotiation strategy, if aligned with a wish to contain U.S. military commitments, might lead to compromises that could inadvertently favour Russian territorial gains.
Putin’s Potential Response
Experts are divided on Putin’s potential response to Trump’s outreach. One scenario suggests that Putin may use the opportunity to “freeze” the conflict under terms favourable to Russia, preserving its hold on current Ukrainian territories and allowing Russia to regroup militarily. In this case, Moscow’s immediate goal could be to intensify its military gains along the frontlines, capturing as much Ukrainian territory as possible before an eventual ceasefire.
Alternatively, Putin might use the negotiations to impose conditions on Ukraine that are unacceptable to Kyiv but could be leveraged diplomatically to portray Trump as an intermediary. This strategy would aim to destabilise Ukraine internally, complicating its leadership’s ability to sustain the conflict while undermining domestic support for Kyiv’s resistance. Such a destabilised Ukraine, analysts warn, could fall more easily within Russia’s influence in the future.
Conversely, some suggest that Putin’s economic concerns could lead him to consider negotiations seriously. Russia’s economy has been strained by the conflict and Western sanctions, and Putin might seek a resolution that allows him to retain face while avoiding further economic downturn. In such a scenario, Putin could opt for an agreement that safeguards Russia’s strategic interests while allowing for limited concessions.
The Path Forward
The post-inauguration phase of Trump’s presidency will likely reveal more about the feasibility of these potential outcomes. Analysts anticipate that Trump, upon assuming office, will continue diplomatic efforts with Russia, likely seeking a compromise. However, such a compromise might not align with Ukraine’s interests, creating potential friction with both the Ukrainian government and broader public sentiment.
Another possible development is the emergence of parallel processes, where active combat continues alongside diplomatic talks. This could see a scenario where negotiations serve as a buffer but fail to halt hostilities, prolonging the conflict and delaying any tangible peace. This situation, characterised by an ongoing war under the guise of peace talks, could mark a significant shift in international conflict dynamics in 2025.
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