For the first time since 2010, Hungary’s ruling Fidesz party, led by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, has been overtaken by an opposition party in a poll among decided voters. The survey, conducted by Budapest-based think tank 21 Research Center and published by local media outlet Partizan, reveals that the newly established Tisza party has garnered 42% support from decided voters, narrowly ahead of Fidesz, which trails at 40%.
The poll’s release comes just hours before a scheduled speech by Orbán, which is set to commemorate the anniversary of the 1956 anti-Soviet uprising, a historical event brutally suppressed by Soviet forces. Orbán’s speech is expected to focus on Hungary’s past and the geopolitical challenges it currently faces, particularly regarding relations with Russia. The timing of this poll, which signals growing support for the opposition, adds an extra layer of significance to the veteran nationalist leader’s address.
The Tisza party, led by Peter Magyar, a 43-year-old political newcomer and former government insider, has rapidly gained traction in recent months. Magyar has positioned himself as a fresh and outspoken critic of Orbán’s government, accusing it of corruption and maintaining a tightly controlled propaganda apparatus. The government, in turn, has denied these allegations, dismissing Magyar’s claims as baseless. However, Magyar’s rhetoric appears to resonate with an increasingly disillusioned electorate grappling with economic hardships, including high inflation and a sluggish economy.
Magyar’s rise to prominence began earlier this year, shortly before the European Parliament elections in June. His campaign has been characterised by large rallies, where he has consistently attacked the government for its perceived failures. His party’s platform promises to tackle corruption and restore transparency to government institutions, an appeal that has attracted significant support, particularly from voters dissatisfied with Hungary’s other opposition parties. Many see Tisza as a viable alternative to the fragmented and ineffective opposition movements that have so far failed to seriously challenge Orbán’s 14-year grip on power.
Fidesz’s Shrinking Lead
While Tisza has overtaken Fidesz among decided voters, the ruling party still holds a slight lead in overall population support, with 29% compared to Tisza’s 26%, according to the same poll. This suggests that while Orbán’s Fidesz retains a significant base of support, particularly among undecided or disengaged voters, its once-dominant position is weakening.
Two additional polls have echoed this trend, showing Fidesz’s lead over Tisza gradually shrinking. The shifting political dynamics raise questions about the long-term sustainability of Orbán’s rule, which has increasingly come under pressure from both domestic and international critics. The next general election, scheduled for early 2026, will provide a clearer picture of whether Tisza’s momentum will translate into lasting political change or if Fidesz will be able to recover its dominance.
Geopolitical and Historical Context
Orbán’s forthcoming speech is expected to be closely scrutinised, particularly in light of recent controversies surrounding his government’s stance on Hungary’s historical relationship with the Soviet Union and, more recently, Russia. Last month, a senior aide to Orbán caused widespread outrage by suggesting that Hungary might have been better off not resisting the Soviet invasion in 1956. The comments, which were also critical of Ukraine’s current efforts to repel Russian forces, drew sharp condemnation from opposition figures, including Magyar, who labelled them “traitorous”.
Orbán, who rose to political prominence in 1989 by demanding the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Hungary, distanced himself from his aide’s remarks, calling them an error. Nevertheless, the incident has raised concerns about the Hungarian government’s increasingly close ties with Russia, a relationship that has drawn criticism from several EU member states.
Magyar has capitalised on these controversies, positioning himself as a defender of Hungary’s sovereignty and historical legacy. His party’s growing popularity suggests that this message is resonating with a portion of the electorate, particularly those frustrated with Orbán’s perceived foreign policy missteps.
Economic Struggles Fuel Dissatisfaction
Hungary’s economic challenges have also played a significant role in Tisza’s rise. The country has faced high inflation in recent months, straining household budgets and fuelling dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of the economy. Orbán’s administration has implemented a range of measures aimed at mitigating the effects of inflation, but these have so far failed to placate many voters.
Magyar has tapped into this frustration, promising economic reforms that he argues will stabilise the country and improve living standards. His critique of the government’s economic policies has been a central theme of his campaign, and it appears to be resonating with voters who are feeling the pinch of rising costs and stagnant wages.
