Moldova’s Transnistrian region, a de facto Russian-controlled enclave since 1992, is now at the heart of a geopolitical manoeuvre by the Kremlin. Once considered a staunch ally of Moscow, the region is experiencing an unprecedented energy crisis following Russia’s decision to halt gas supplies on 1 January 2025. The move, a continuation of Russia’s use of energy as a geopolitical weapon, threatens to dismantle the region’s economy and industrial base, leading to severe humanitarian and political consequences.
Gas as a Geopolitical Weapon
For over three decades, Transnistria has relied on free natural gas from Russia, supplied by Gazprom. This support has been instrumental in sustaining the separatist regime in Tiraspol, enabling its economy and ensuring Moscow’s continued military presence along Moldova’s border with Ukraine. However, on 31 December 2024, Gazprom announced the cessation of gas deliveries, leaving Transnistria and its 350,000 inhabitants without a vital resource. The region’s limited infrastructure for gas storage has exacerbated the situation, forcing local authorities to make drastic cuts in gas and energy usage.
Despite the crisis, Transnistrian authorities rejected offers from Moldova to procure gas from European platforms, citing concerns over higher and unstable prices. Instead, Tiraspol remains hopeful that Gazprom will restore supplies under an existing contract valid until 2026. This decision underscores the region’s reliance on Moscow and its unwillingness to seek alternatives, further entrenching its dependency.
The crisis has halted industrial operations, with Vice Premier and Minister of Economy of the self-proclaimed Transnistrian Moldovan Republic, Sergey Obolon, warning that the region’s industries may not recover. Without gas, Transnistria’s industrial plants and residential heating systems have been shut down, leaving the population to rely on electric heaters, which further strain the fragile power grid. The region’s Moldavskaya power station, which previously supplied electricity to both Transnistria and Moldova, has limited coal reserves expected to last only 50 days. These reserves, originating from pre-2014 Ukraine, cannot be replenished due to the lack of suitable anthracite.
Broader Implications for Moldova
The crisis has also impacted Moldova proper, which had been purchasing electricity from the Transnistrian-run Kuchurgan Power Station. The station’s dependency on Russian gas has forced Moldova to seek alternative energy sources from Romania, but logistical challenges and high costs persist. Moldova’s reliance on electricity imports is compounded by its vulnerability to Russian attacks on power infrastructure in southern Ukraine, through which critical transmission lines pass.
The Moldovan government has implemented austerity measures, such as reducing non-essential energy consumption and adjusting tariffs. Despite these efforts, the situation remains fragile, with concerns over the resilience of Moldova’s power infrastructure amid potential Russian strikes on key transmission lines.
The Kremlin’s Objectives
Russia’s decision to cut gas supplies to Transnistria raises questions about its strategic intent. Analysts suggest three primary motivations:
- Pressure on Ukraine and Europe: The Kremlin aims to demonstrate the indispensability of Russian gas transit through Ukraine to Europe. By creating crises in neighbouring Moldova, Russia seeks to compel European actors to pressure Kyiv into resuming transit agreements, thereby securing revenues for Gazprom.
- Destabilising Moldova’s Government: With parliamentary elections due later in 2025, Russia’s actions aim to undermine Moldova’s pro-European leadership, led by President Maia Sandu. By fuelling dissatisfaction among Moldovan voters, the Kremlin hopes to pave the way for a more Russia-friendly administration.
- Economic and Political Leverage: The energy crisis undermines Moldova’s economic stability, creating opportunities for Russia to reassert influence and deter further European integration. Moscow’s endgame could involve leveraging Moldova’s reliance on electricity imports to consolidate control over the country.
Transnistria at a Crossroads
The energy crisis has placed Transnistria’s future in doubt. Without Russian subsidies, the region’s economy, heavily dependent on gas and electricity sales to Moldova, faces collapse. Even if coal reserves last the winter, the region’s power grid may not withstand increased demand for heating. Humanitarian consequences, including widespread blackouts and loss of industrial activity, seem imminent.
Tiraspol’s attempts to shift blame onto Chisinau and the West have failed to alleviate the growing public dissatisfaction. As local authorities encourage electric heating to compensate for gas shortages, power outages are becoming more frequent, and the region’s isolation deepens. Transnistria’s rejection of European gas offers reflects its hope for Russian support, but this decision risks further entrenching its vulnerability.
Potential Outcomes
The immediate priority for Moldova is managing the humanitarian impact of the crisis. Support from the European Union and Ukraine will be crucial in providing emergency energy supplies and mitigating economic strain. Kyiv, for instance, could temporarily supply small volumes of gas to Transnistria, showcasing its commitment to regional stability and countering Russian narratives.
Looking ahead, Moldova faces a delicate balancing act. Reintegrating Transnistria will require addressing political, economic, and security challenges, including the status of Russian troops stationed in the region. President Sandu’s administration may defer substantial steps until after the parliamentary elections to avoid alienating voters or empowering pro-Russian factions.
Turning Crisis into Opportunity: Moldova’s Path Amid Kremlin’s Calculations
The crisis in Transnistria underscores the Kremlin’s readiness to sacrifice even its proxies to achieve broader strategic goals. However, the effectiveness of this tactic remains uncertain. Moldova, with the backing of its European and Ukrainian partners, has an opportunity to turn this crisis into a step towards reunification and strengthened sovereignty. As events unfold, the resilience of Moldova’s leadership and the solidarity of its allies will be critical in shaping the region’s future.
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